Glen Sather said the Rangers were going to be active in free agency and they lived up to that on day one. They’ve yet to make the type of blockbuster addition expected but that doesn’t mean the roster moves made on July 1st won’t impact next season’s roster. The most notable signing was that of gritty forward Arron Asham, who once he takes the ice for the Blue Shirts will have played for each team in the Atlantic Division.
Asham likely will fill a spot on the fourth line where he’ll bring a little more physicality to the lineup. While he won’t have a prominent role on the team Asham’s addition was meaningful in another way as it meant the club had decided to move on from fan-favorite Brandon Prust. Asham agreed to a two-year deal worth $2 million and Prust later signed a four-year deal worth $10 million to join the Montreal Canadiens.
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With the Rangers on the prowl for more offense this offseason two free agents who might warrant a looksee from Sather are (potentially) soon-to-be former Coyote teammates Ray Whitney and Shane Doan. Both players have expressed their desire to remain in Phoenix however the ownership uncertainty surrounding the organization has prompted them to at least consider leaving the desert. If the Rangers were to have their choice of player with all else being equal, which would be the best fit for New York?
If we were to base the decision solely on last year’s stats and the Rangers need for more scoring it would appear on the surface that Whitney would be the better option. After all, his 77 points scored bested Doan by 27. Yet by now we realize that totals may not mean as much as rates do.
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Everyone knows the Rangers are going to address their offense somehow, someway this summer. However, the free agent market’s best scoring forward, Zach Parise, has sworn he won’t sign with his current club’s arch-enemy (the Rangers) and the other players with a track record of offensive production will likely get big money offers from other teams as is customary in free agency. The Rangers, with important younger players set to hit restricted free agency in the next couple of years, may be and should be hesitant to overpay for an unrestricted free agent this summer.
The trade market, highlighted by Rich Nash and perhaps Bobby Ryan, offers more available high-end talent but to date the cost to acquire any one of those players is quite high. Sather has so far resisted the temptation to subtract what potentially could be multiple young assets from his core to add the big scoring winger the team seeks.
That means it wouldn’t be too shocking to see Sather take a chance this offseason on a buy low, bounce back candidate. One of those types just became available today when it was announced the Colorado Avalanche would not be submitting a qualifying offer to 24-year-old forward Peter Mueller.
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With the Rangers (and their fans) dreams of Stanley Cup glory dashed and their goal of winning a championship unfulfilled it’s time for the organization to take a look in the mirror to figure out what needs to be done to take the next step in 2013. However in order to know what, if any, changes need to be made to this roster in order to improve the team management needs to know where the weaknesses on the club lie. That’s where advanced stats might be able to help.
Before we delve into some of the advanced stats from the perspective of potential summer roster changes, let’s take a look at the season past to see how individual players fared. Today we begin a three-part series analyzing the performance of the Rangers in the postseason. First up is a look at the Relative Corsi and Quality of Competition (QoC) ratings. QoC is one of my favorite advanced stats. It helps to put a perspective on many other metrics I use.
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Late last week Adam received an email from reader Matthew Hevia in which Matthew argues against making a trade for Rick Nash that would 
involve Brandon Dubinsky going the other way. Matthew cites the large disparity in the respective Relative Corsi ratings between Nash and Dubi this year in making his case Dubi carries more value than Nash aside from goal scoring numbers.
Relative Corsi has value as a metric but it doesn’t tell the whole story. Nash plays for the worst team in the league this year. Chances are his Corsi rating is being hindered by the quality of his teammates. It’s also conceivable, with Nash being his team’s best player, he is lining up opposite some of the opponent’s better players.
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Reader Matthew Hevia emailed this look at the idea of swapping Rick Nash for Brandon Dubinsky using Advanced Stats:
Aside from all of the talk regarding how screwed The Rangers would be cap wise if they acquired Rick Nash, think of this. The Rangers are built primarily on defense and team chemistry. Rick Nash may add offense, but with a plus minus of -22 this year, it’s clear that he wouldn’t fit in on a defensive minded, hard working, shot blocking team. The Rangers don’t have anyone who is below a -4. Also, Dubinsky has value in the locker room that Rick Nash couldn’t match. As a matter of fact, it’d be unfair to even ask Rick Nash to try and gel with a squad that has gone through a whirlwind of a season thus far. Between the European tour, the presence of HBO for a month while preparing for The Winter Classic, and solidifying a team identity, It has been the kind of season that forms a special bond between teammates that experience it all TOGETHER. With all of this being said, I think that the comparison of Dubinsky and Nash using corsi is very telling. The Blue Jackets are an awful team, and according to the numbers below, on average, with Nash on the ice they let up close to 1.5 shots less than they do when he sits. When you subtract his off ice corsi, from his on ice corsi, it creates his relative corsi, which is 1.2. This means that overall, on average, he’s good for helping the team throw 1.2 more shots on net than they give up. With Brandon Dubinsky on the ice, The Rangers give up almost 8.5 less shots than they do when he is off the ice. Dubinsky’s relative corsi is 8.2, and this shows you that on average, Brandon Dubinsky is responsible for directing 7 more pucks at the net than Rick Nash is. I realize that this could change if Rick Nash were placed on a team like The Rangers, but the numbers are the numbers. You have to play defense, and help the team to put pucks on net in order to score, and ultimately win. Brandon Dubinsky does all of those things, I say keep him!
Relative CORSI ON CORSI OFF
| DUBINSKY 8.2 |
-1.84 |
-10.03 |
Speculation has the Rangers trying to add a top-six winger who can help their pitiful power-play ahead of next month’s trade deadline. Some of the names rumored to be on the Rangers wish list are: Bobby Ryan, Shane Doan, Teemu Selanne, Vinny Prospal and Brendan Morrow. Of that group: Ryan is going to cost a princely sum; Doan and Selanne have so far indicated they’d rather stay with their respective clubs; Prospal, while we know he would fit in with the group of guys already here, will turn 37 before the deadline and has cooled off since a strong start; and Morrow may or may not even be available. Fact is it won’t be easy to add someone to boost the team’s PP efficiency nor is there even any guarantee any addition would help in that regard.
The Rangers might instead be forced to either stand pat or make a low risk, moderate reward type of move instead of the big splash many would rather see. If the Rangers truly feel they need to upgrade their man-advantage attack there are other, under-the-radar additions they could make without sacrificing roster players and/or top prospects. This likely won’t be a popular suggestion among Ranger fans but a move in the mold mentioned above would be to acquire Tampa D Marc-Andre Bergeron.
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Recently I saw a piece from Craig Custance of ESPN.com in which he fielded and answered readers’ questions. One query specifically caught my eye. Mike from Kalamazoo asked Craig if he thought the NHL would ever split the Norris trophy into two separate awards; one recognizing the best offensive blueliner and the other the best defensive defenseman. In his response, Custance, while saying he didn’t think the league would ever do it, pointed out that Globe and Mail writer James Mirtle annually ranks the best defensive defensemen and awards that player in an article the fictional Rod Langway Award.
Mirtle uses a few basic metrics found on Behind The Net for this analysis. +/- QoC, or “QCMP,” as it’s listed in the piece, is one of them. He also uses ES GA/60 and SH GA/60 to help make his determination. For the 2010 – 2011 season, Vancouver’s Dan Hamhuis came away with Mirtle’s Rod Langway Award.
Surprisingly, Florida’s Jason Garrison and Mike Weaver placed 2nd and 3rd respectively in Mirtle’s work. Our own Marc Staal rated 11th and Dan Girardi 26th in the analysis.
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Last week ESPN published two related articles analyzing the early returns from some of this summer’s UFA signings. Timo Seppa of Hockey Prospectus, who also contributes to ESPN.com, applied GVT and the associated GVS (Goals Versus Salary) metric in determining which offseason signings have been worth the money and which haven’t. In the second piece, ESPN’s Craig Custance takes Seppa’s analysis to some NHL GM’s for their reactions.
In an example of how wide the chasm between statistical analysis and traditional player evaluation techniques can be GVS did not shine favorably on the Rangers acquisition of Brad Richards while the GM quoted in Custance’s piece cited the intangibles the veteran center brings that no metric can adequately account for. The key to player evaluation is the ability to take all available information, including the advanced stats and scouting reports and use those to make smart decisions. The team that does that the best has a good chance of being successful on an annual basis.
Ordinarily I am the guy that relies on advanced stats to support my arguments. In this piece I am going to demonstrate the potential pitfalls in relying on a single metric or limited data rather than information from a multitude of sources. First let me explain what GVS is and how to calculate the value. Since the point of contention is Brad Richards we’ll use his numbers.
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Aside from Henrik Lundqvist there has been no player more valuable to the Rangers success this year than Dan Girardi. Girardi has assumed the mantle of leadership on a very young blue line corps missing one of the top shutdown defenders in the league in Marc Staal. Despite the season-long absence of Staal and injuries to other members of the defense, the Rangers still rank third in the NHL allowing just 2.1 goals per game. Not only is that a testament to the continued great play of Lundqvist and his backup, Martin Biron, it is also reflective of the tremendous play of Girardi as well.
Many have pushed Girardi’s case to be an All-Star this year despite the omission of his name from the ballot. While that would certainly be a well-deserved reward for the 27 year-old defenseman could he find himself in consideration for an even greater award after the season? Is Girardi making a case for a Norris Trophy nomination?
In this post we’ll compare Girardi’s season to date with those of the three players that have combined to win the previous four Norris Trophies: Nicklas Lidstrom (twice), Zdeno Chara and Duncan Keith. Naturally we’ll look at categories you’d expect Norris-caliber defensemen to excel at and will use some of the advanced stats we’ve utilized in past articles.
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